Geopolitical tensions and repeated attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 transit range as the market's leading outcome at 64% implied probability. Ongoing Iranian strikes, including those on ADNOC tankers in mid-August, combined with U.S. naval blockade measures and stalled ceasefire talks, have reduced daily crossings to single digits or low teens—far below the pre-crisis average of roughly 130 vessels. This environment has driven the <25 bucket to 34% odds, while outcomes above 50 remain under 2%. Fragile diplomatic efforts with Oman and elevated war-risk insurance continue to suppress volumes, with traders monitoring any last-minute corridor agreements or de-escalation signals ahead of resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया10 अगस्त के स्ट्रेट ऑफ होर्मुज सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
10 अगस्त के स्ट्रेट ऑफ होर्मुज सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
25-49 66%
<25 35%
50-74 1.6%
75-99 <1%
$40,913 वॉल्यूम
$40,913 वॉल्यूम
16 अग, 2026
<25
35%
25-49
66%
50-74
2%
75-99
<1%
100+
<1%
25-49 66%
<25 35%
50-74 1.6%
75-99 <1%
$40,913 वॉल्यूम
$40,913 वॉल्यूम
16 अग, 2026
<25
$15,560 वॉल्यूम
35%
25-49
$15,696 वॉल्यूम
66%
50-74
$6,798 वॉल्यूम
2%
75-99
$1,663 वॉल्यूम
<1%
100+
$1,197 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions and repeated attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 transit range as the market's leading outcome at 64% implied probability. Ongoing Iranian strikes, including those on ADNOC tankers in mid-August, combined with U.S. naval blockade measures and stalled ceasefire talks, have reduced daily crossings to single digits or low teens—far below the pre-crisis average of roughly 130 vessels. This environment has driven the <25 bucket to 34% odds, while outcomes above 50 remain under 2%. Fragile diplomatic efforts with Oman and elevated war-risk insurance continue to suppress volumes, with traders monitoring any last-minute corridor agreements or de-escalation signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$40,913समाप्ति तिथि
16 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions and repeated attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 transit range as the market's leading outcome at 64% implied probability. Ongoing Iranian strikes, including those on ADNOC tankers in mid-August, combined with U.S. naval blockade measures and stalled ceasefire talks, have reduced daily crossings to single digits or low teens—far below the pre-crisis average of roughly 130 vessels. This environment has driven the <25 bucket to 34% odds, while outcomes above 50 remain under 2%. Fragile diplomatic efforts with Oman and elevated war-risk insurance continue to suppress volumes, with traders monitoring any last-minute corridor agreements or de-escalation signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$40,913समाप्ति तिथि
16 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions and repeated attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 transit range as the market's leading outcome at 64% implied probability. Ongoing Iranian strikes, including those on ADNOC tankers in mid-August, combined with U.S. naval blockade measures and stalled ceasefire talks, have reduced daily crossings to single digits or low teens—far below the pre-crisis average of roughly 130 vessels. This environment has driven the <25 bucket to 34% odds, while outcomes above 50 remain under 2%. Fragile diplomatic efforts with Oman and elevated war-risk insurance continue to suppress volumes, with traders monitoring any last-minute corridor agreements or de-escalation signals ahead of resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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