**Ongoing military conflict and Iranian restrictions have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely reduced since late February 2026, with little prospect of full normalization by year-end.** The crisis began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran around February 28, 2026, prompting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to declare the strait closed to hostile shipping and impose permit requirements. AIS-visible transits have since averaged roughly 10% or less of the pre-crisis baseline of ~85 per day, with recent figures showing 3–10 daily crossings amid ongoing risks. Multiple tanker attacks occurred in early October 2026, including at least a dozen strikes between late September and early October that caused fires, engine damage, and power failures. War-risk insurance remains elevated (often 15–30× normal premiums), rendering most commercial operations uneconomical. Temporary ceasefires and U.S.-facilitated southern-route transits produced brief rebounds (e.g., peaks near 50+ transits in June), but restrictions resumed in response to regional developments, including Israeli actions in Lebanon. Iran continues to assert coastal-state control and reject unauthorized routes, while the U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center maintains a “severe” threat level. With only weeks remaining until December 31 and no comprehensive de-escalation or security guarantees in place, trader consensus assigns an 82.5% probability that traffic will not return to normal volumes.