Trump administration statements in late September 2026, including President Trump’s prediction that the United States and Cuba “will make a deal” without needing military force, have reinforced trader expectations against an invasion. Ongoing U.S. strategy centers on economic sanctions, fuel shipment seizures, and diplomatic pressure rather than direct military commitments, even as contingency planning continues at U.S. Southern Command. Cuba has responded by boosting defensive preparations while keeping limited communication channels open, with no formal negotiations underway. The 95.5% implied probability on “No” reflects this pattern of coercive diplomacy over kinetic action. Late-year escalation could still occur if sanctions fail to produce concessions or if a security incident alters risk calculations before December 31.