Ongoing US-Iran tensions since the February 2026 strikes have kept regional aviation risks elevated, with a fragile April ceasefire limiting but not eliminating escalation potential. Iran's airspace reopened in phases earlier in 2026 and remains open to overflights as of mid-November, though foreign carriers largely avoid it due to EASA and FAA advisories citing air defense threats and possible misidentification. Recent developments include temporary western airspace restrictions, GPS jamming, military drills near the Strait of Hormuz, and brief closures amid US action concerns. Trader consensus reflects these contained conditions, with low implied probabilities for a full general closure by late 2026 unless fresh strikes or major diplomatic breakdowns occur. Key upcoming factors include EASA bulletin reviews and any shifts in US-Iran naval or proxy dynamics.