**Kharg Island remains under Iranian governmental and military control as of early October 2026, despite U.S. and Israeli strikes on air defenses, radar sites, naval facilities, and other military targets, and a U.S. naval blockade disrupting Strait of Hormuz traffic.** Operations at the terminal, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, have faced repeated loading halts and reduced throughput but have resumed intermittently, with Iranian officials reporting continued or even elevated export volumes amid the pressures. Speculation around potential U.S. seizure or occupation—raised in public statements—has not materialized into ground operations or sovereignty changes, and markets assign low probabilities (around 5-8% for year-end resolutions) to any loss of primary control. Key variables include the pace of diplomatic negotiations, risks of further escalation or de-escalation, and verifiable shifts in on-island authority.