The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 76.5% “No” odds. Power transferred rapidly to Mojtaba Khamenei with backing from the IRGC and security forces, while authorities suppressed the large-scale protests that began in late 2025 through lethal force and internet blackouts. Ongoing sanctions, economic contraction, and intermittent strikes have not produced elite defections or military fractures sufficient to trigger collapse. Recent diplomatic exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz and oil exports reflect Tehran’s continued ability to manage external pressure and internal control into late 2026. Traders therefore assign limited near-term odds of regime change before 2028 absent a decisive new catalyst.