Iran’s post-2026 war power struggles and factional rivalries form the core driver of trader odds on a coup attempt by year-end. The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei left a leadership vacuum filled by his son Mojtaba, who now directs military reorganization and senior appointments. Hardline lawmakers have publicly accused figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting against Mojtaba amid disputes over a U.S. truce and Strait of Hormuz access, while earlier reports referenced a failed January 2026 effort involving former officials. Ongoing sanctions, economic pressure, and internal accusations of betrayal continue to highlight regime instability without confirming coordinated action against the government. Trader consensus prices the probability of a widely reported attempt at 13 percent through December 2026, reflecting these divisions alongside the absence of verified recent escalations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$2,115,813 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
31 दिसंबर
12%
$2,115,813 वॉल्यूम
31 दिसंबर
$74,587 वॉल्यूम
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-2026 war power struggles and factional rivalries form the core driver of trader odds on a coup attempt by year-end. The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei left a leadership vacuum filled by his son Mojtaba, who now directs military reorganization and senior appointments. Hardline lawmakers have publicly accused figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting against Mojtaba amid disputes over a U.S. truce and Strait of Hormuz access, while earlier reports referenced a failed January 2026 effort involving former officials. Ongoing sanctions, economic pressure, and internal accusations of betrayal continue to highlight regime instability without confirming coordinated action against the government. Trader consensus prices the probability of a widely reported attempt at 13 percent through December 2026, reflecting these divisions alongside the absence of verified recent escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,115,813समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-2026 war power struggles and factional rivalries form the core driver of trader odds on a coup attempt by year-end. The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei left a leadership vacuum filled by his son Mojtaba, who now directs military reorganization and senior appointments. Hardline lawmakers have publicly accused figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting against Mojtaba amid disputes over a U.S. truce and Strait of Hormuz access, while earlier reports referenced a failed January 2026 effort involving former officials. Ongoing sanctions, economic pressure, and internal accusations of betrayal continue to highlight regime instability without confirming coordinated action against the government. Trader consensus prices the probability of a widely reported attempt at 13 percent through December 2026, reflecting these divisions alongside the absence of verified recent escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$2,115,813समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-2026 war power struggles and factional rivalries form the core driver of trader odds on a coup attempt by year-end. The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei left a leadership vacuum filled by his son Mojtaba, who now directs military reorganization and senior appointments. Hardline lawmakers have publicly accused figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting against Mojtaba amid disputes over a U.S. truce and Strait of Hormuz access, while earlier reports referenced a failed January 2026 effort involving former officials. Ongoing sanctions, economic pressure, and internal accusations of betrayal continue to highlight regime instability without confirming coordinated action against the government. Trader consensus prices the probability of a widely reported attempt at 13 percent through December 2026, reflecting these divisions alongside the absence of verified recent escalations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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