Ongoing US-Iran tensions and proxy threats from groups such as Hezbollah continue to shape trader assessments for Israeli airspace closure. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026 followed the breakdown of an earlier ceasefire, prompting repeated temporary closures and reopenings between February and July. As of early August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open with flights operating, though EASA advisories and a US Embassy security alert on August 1 highlight risks of short-notice disruptions. Traders assign low probability to closure by late August, reflecting the pattern of volatility without sustained full shutdown amid active diplomatic and security assessments. Scheduled regional developments could alter this trajectory if escalation intensifies.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$26,916,915 वॉल्यूम
15 अग, 2026
15 अगस्त
1%
31 अगस्त
7%
$26,916,915 वॉल्यूम
15 अगस्त
$903,520 वॉल्यूम
1%
31 अगस्त
$990,211 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and proxy threats from groups such as Hezbollah continue to shape trader assessments for Israeli airspace closure. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026 followed the breakdown of an earlier ceasefire, prompting repeated temporary closures and reopenings between February and July. As of early August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open with flights operating, though EASA advisories and a US Embassy security alert on August 1 highlight risks of short-notice disruptions. Traders assign low probability to closure by late August, reflecting the pattern of volatility without sustained full shutdown amid active diplomatic and security assessments. Scheduled regional developments could alter this trajectory if escalation intensifies.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$26,916,915समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and proxy threats from groups such as Hezbollah continue to shape trader assessments for Israeli airspace closure. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026 followed the breakdown of an earlier ceasefire, prompting repeated temporary closures and reopenings between February and July. As of early August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open with flights operating, though EASA advisories and a US Embassy security alert on August 1 highlight risks of short-notice disruptions. Traders assign low probability to closure by late August, reflecting the pattern of volatility without sustained full shutdown amid active diplomatic and security assessments. Scheduled regional developments could alter this trajectory if escalation intensifies.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$26,916,915समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran tensions and proxy threats from groups such as Hezbollah continue to shape trader assessments for Israeli airspace closure. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026 followed the breakdown of an earlier ceasefire, prompting repeated temporary closures and reopenings between February and July. As of early August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open with flights operating, though EASA advisories and a US Embassy security alert on August 1 highlight risks of short-notice disruptions. Traders assign low probability to closure by late August, reflecting the pattern of volatility without sustained full shutdown amid active diplomatic and security assessments. Scheduled regional developments could alter this trajectory if escalation intensifies.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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