Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict, now in its eighth month, have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at roughly 5-12% of pre-crisis norms amid Iranian permit requirements, attacks on tankers, and war-risk insurance premiums running 15-30 times peacetime levels. Recent October incidents, including multiple strikes and threats to unauthorized routes, have further suppressed transits without signs of near-term de-escalation before month-end. Market-implied odds near 99% for no normalization by October 31 reflect this entrenched disruption and prohibitive costs for operators. Tail risks include an unexpected ceasefire or major diplomatic breakthrough that could rapidly restore safe passage and lower insurance rates.