Recent military gains by Yemeni government forces under Operation Yemen Dawn, including claimed control of Bab el-Mandeb approaches by early October, have supported a modest recovery in transits, building on September's 314 containership crossings—the highest monthly total since the Houthi campaign began. Container carriers continue accelerating returns via the Red Sea route, with larger vessels leading the shift, though tanker traffic remains pressured by the July Saudi shipping embargo and selective Houthi targeting. These factors create competitive dynamics around the 190-209 range, with downside risks from any renewed incidents or insurer caution and upside potential from sustained de-escalation. Key near-term differentiators include carrier service announcements, daily AIS-tracked volumes, and developments in coastal security.