Ongoing Iran-related maritime disruptions, including a record number of tanker attacks in early October 2026 and elevated war-risk insurance premiums at 15–30 times normal levels, anchor trader consensus around sharply reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic. AIS-visible commercial transits have averaged roughly 9 per day over the past week versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85, with IMF PortWatch data showing even lower figures around 3 daily amid US naval coordination, Iranian permitting demands, and widespread rerouting. These conditions sustain the 70.5% implied probability on the 0–5 outcome band, while modest rebounds in coordinated VLCC movements and potential de-escalation signals introduce limited scope for the 5–10 range at 24%. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of persistent chokepoint constraints through late October.