The Iranian regime's core institutions and security apparatus have demonstrated continuity following leadership succession after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role through established clerical processes, with military and judicial bodies renewing allegiance to the theocratic system. In the ensuing months, officials have prioritized internal unity measures and contingency planning amid economic pressures, including currency devaluation and unemployment spikes, while a fragile April 2026 ceasefire with the United States and Israel remains in place. These developments underscore the regime's structural resilience and capacity to manage external military challenges and domestic strains without immediate collapse, aligning with trader assessments that place the probability of survival past 2026 at 83.5 percent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$17,821,871 वॉल्यूम
$17,821,871 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$17,821,871 वॉल्यूम
$17,821,871 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's core institutions and security apparatus have demonstrated continuity following leadership succession after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role through established clerical processes, with military and judicial bodies renewing allegiance to the theocratic system. In the ensuing months, officials have prioritized internal unity measures and contingency planning amid economic pressures, including currency devaluation and unemployment spikes, while a fragile April 2026 ceasefire with the United States and Israel remains in place. These developments underscore the regime's structural resilience and capacity to manage external military challenges and domestic strains without immediate collapse, aligning with trader assessments that place the probability of survival past 2026 at 83.5 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$17,821,871समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's core institutions and security apparatus have demonstrated continuity following leadership succession after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role through established clerical processes, with military and judicial bodies renewing allegiance to the theocratic system. In the ensuing months, officials have prioritized internal unity measures and contingency planning amid economic pressures, including currency devaluation and unemployment spikes, while a fragile April 2026 ceasefire with the United States and Israel remains in place. These developments underscore the regime's structural resilience and capacity to manage external military challenges and domestic strains without immediate collapse, aligning with trader assessments that place the probability of survival past 2026 at 83.5 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$17,821,871समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's core institutions and security apparatus have demonstrated continuity following leadership succession after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role through established clerical processes, with military and judicial bodies renewing allegiance to the theocratic system. In the ensuing months, officials have prioritized internal unity measures and contingency planning amid economic pressures, including currency devaluation and unemployment spikes, while a fragile April 2026 ceasefire with the United States and Israel remains in place. These developments underscore the regime's structural resilience and capacity to manage external military challenges and domestic strains without immediate collapse, aligning with trader assessments that place the probability of survival past 2026 at 83.5 percent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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