**The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures underpins the 93.5% "No" probability that it will fall before 2027.** Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei in 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidated influence alongside figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Large-scale protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026 across all provinces, triggered by economic collapse and rial devaluation, were met with a brutal nationwide crackdown involving mass arrests, executions, and communications blackouts that suppressed dissent by mid-year. Ongoing U.S. sanctions threats and intermittent strikes tied to the failed memorandum of understanding have intensified economic isolation, yet Iranian officials across factions—including President Masoud Pezeshkian—have prioritized endurance over concessions. No major defections from the security apparatus or renewed widespread unrest have materialized in recent months, consistent with the regime's historical capacity to contain challenges through coercion despite internal elite tensions and regional setbacks. Traders' consensus aligns with this pattern of institutional continuity and suppression capacity extending through the remainder of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
7% संभावना
$24,858,467 वॉल्यूम
$24,858,467 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
हाँ
7% संभावना
$24,858,467 वॉल्यूम
$24,858,467 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures underpins the 93.5% "No" probability that it will fall before 2027.**
Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei in 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidated influence alongside figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Large-scale protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026 across all provinces, triggered by economic collapse and rial devaluation, were met with a brutal nationwide crackdown involving mass arrests, executions, and communications blackouts that suppressed dissent by mid-year.
Ongoing U.S. sanctions threats and intermittent strikes tied to the failed memorandum of understanding have intensified economic isolation, yet Iranian officials across factions—including President Masoud Pezeshkian—have prioritized endurance over concessions. No major defections from the security apparatus or renewed widespread unrest have materialized in recent months, consistent with the regime's historical capacity to contain challenges through coercion despite internal elite tensions and regional setbacks. Traders' consensus aligns with this pattern of institutional continuity and suppression capacity extending through the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$24,858,467समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures underpins the 93.5% "No" probability that it will fall before 2027.**
Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei in 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidated influence alongside figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Large-scale protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026 across all provinces, triggered by economic collapse and rial devaluation, were met with a brutal nationwide crackdown involving mass arrests, executions, and communications blackouts that suppressed dissent by mid-year.
Ongoing U.S. sanctions threats and intermittent strikes tied to the failed memorandum of understanding have intensified economic isolation, yet Iranian officials across factions—including President Masoud Pezeshkian—have prioritized endurance over concessions. No major defections from the security apparatus or renewed widespread unrest have materialized in recent months, consistent with the regime's historical capacity to contain challenges through coercion despite internal elite tensions and regional setbacks. Traders' consensus aligns with this pattern of institutional continuity and suppression capacity extending through the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$24,858,467समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures underpins the 93.5% "No" probability that it will fall before 2027.** Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei in 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidated influence alongside figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Large-scale protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026 across all provinces, triggered by economic collapse and rial devaluation, were met with a brutal nationwide crackdown involving mass arrests, executions, and communications blackouts that suppressed dissent by mid-year. Ongoing U.S. sanctions threats and intermittent strikes tied to the failed memorandum of understanding have intensified economic isolation, yet Iranian officials across factions—including President Masoud Pezeshkian—have prioritized endurance over concessions. No major defections from the security apparatus or renewed widespread unrest have materialized in recent months, consistent with the regime's historical capacity to contain challenges through coercion despite internal elite tensions and regional setbacks. Traders' consensus aligns with this pattern of institutional continuity and suppression capacity extending through the remainder of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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