The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, sustained military confrontations, and large-scale domestic protests underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026 and the swift appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, core institutions including the IRGC maintained continuity with minimal defections despite economic strain from sanctions and strikes. Recent September 2026 security appointments and judicial coordination efforts with China signal preparations to contain unrest, while government-organized rallies demonstrate controlled mobilization capacity. External pressure has prompted nationalist consolidation rather than fragmentation, consistent with patterns after prior crises. A rapid shift would require either a nationwide uprising fracturing security forces or unforeseen escalation that overcomes the regime's repressive apparatus and succession mechanisms within the narrow remaining window.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या ईरानी शासन 2027 से पहले गिर जाएगा?
क्या ईरानी शासन 2027 से पहले गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
7% संभावना
$26,181,269 वॉल्यूम
$26,181,269 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
7% संभावना
$26,181,269 वॉल्यूम
$26,181,269 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, sustained military confrontations, and large-scale domestic protests underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026 and the swift appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, core institutions including the IRGC maintained continuity with minimal defections despite economic strain from sanctions and strikes. Recent September 2026 security appointments and judicial coordination efforts with China signal preparations to contain unrest, while government-organized rallies demonstrate controlled mobilization capacity. External pressure has prompted nationalist consolidation rather than fragmentation, consistent with patterns after prior crises. A rapid shift would require either a nationwide uprising fracturing security forces or unforeseen escalation that overcomes the regime's repressive apparatus and succession mechanisms within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$26,181,269समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, sustained military confrontations, and large-scale domestic protests underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026 and the swift appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, core institutions including the IRGC maintained continuity with minimal defections despite economic strain from sanctions and strikes. Recent September 2026 security appointments and judicial coordination efforts with China signal preparations to contain unrest, while government-organized rallies demonstrate controlled mobilization capacity. External pressure has prompted nationalist consolidation rather than fragmentation, consistent with patterns after prior crises. A rapid shift would require either a nationwide uprising fracturing security forces or unforeseen escalation that overcomes the regime's repressive apparatus and succession mechanisms within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$26,181,269समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, sustained military confrontations, and large-scale domestic protests underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026 and the swift appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, core institutions including the IRGC maintained continuity with minimal defections despite economic strain from sanctions and strikes. Recent September 2026 security appointments and judicial coordination efforts with China signal preparations to contain unrest, while government-organized rallies demonstrate controlled mobilization capacity. External pressure has prompted nationalist consolidation rather than fragmentation, consistent with patterns after prior crises. A rapid shift would require either a nationwide uprising fracturing security forces or unforeseen escalation that overcomes the regime's repressive apparatus and succession mechanisms within the narrow remaining window.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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