Ongoing attacks on vessels and Iran's demands for transit permits amid the prolonged Hormuz crisis continue to suppress commercial traffic, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds around the 20-24 and 30-34 ship bins for the week of October 5. As of early October 2026, AIS-visible daily transits average roughly 3-4 ships, or about 5% of the pre-crisis baseline near 80-85 per day, though dark transits, U.S.-facilitated convoys, and ship-to-ship transfers have enabled partial crude oil flows near 13-14 million barrels daily in recent data. Escalating incidents, including the October 1 tanker strike, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and carrier rerouting, sustain uncertainty over weekly totals. Trader positioning reflects the balance between adaptation through non-standard routing and persistent geopolitical risks that could swing volumes in either direction.