Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82% implied probability of remaining Iran's Supreme Leader at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts after Ali Khamenei's assassination during U.S.-Israeli strikes. Traders price continuity due to rapid institutional consolidation around the regime's security apparatus and IRGC networks, with Mojtaba positioned as a hardline successor despite limited public visibility and reports of injuries sustained in the conflict. Low odds on alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or a leadership vacuum reflect the absence of confirmed challenges to the constitutional succession process or major escalations that could trigger further turnover before year-end. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments in the conflict represent the primary variables that could still shift these assessments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
मोज़तबा खामनेई 82.2%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 4.4%
रज़ा पहलवी 3.4%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी 2.5%
$38,634,406 वॉल्यूम
$38,634,406 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
मोज़तबा खामनेई
82%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
4%
रज़ा पहलवी
3%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
2%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
2%
हसन रूहानी
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
1%
हसन खोमेनी
1%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
अब्बास अराक़ची
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
मरीयम रजवी
<1%
मसूद रजवी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
नविद शोमाली
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
मोज़तबा खामनेई 82.2%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 4.4%
रज़ा पहलवी 3.4%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी 2.5%
$38,634,406 वॉल्यूम
$38,634,406 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
मोज़तबा खामनेई
$6,039,380 वॉल्यूम
82%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
$1,148,676 वॉल्यूम
4%
रज़ा पहलवी
$672,396 वॉल्यूम
3%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
$2,311,688 वॉल्यूम
2%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
$1,120,634 वॉल्यूम
2%
हसन रूहानी
$944,728 वॉल्यूम
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
$776,835 वॉल्यूम
1%
हसन खोमेनी
$1,425,383 वॉल्यूम
1%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
$918,080 वॉल्यूम
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
$1,020,011 वॉल्यूम
1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
$437,515 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अब्बास अराक़ची
$833,512 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
$535,501 वॉल्यूम
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
$3,143,945 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मरीयम रजवी
$804,789 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मसूद रजवी
$397,209 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
$3,694,534 वॉल्यूम
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
$145,355 वॉल्यूम
<1%
नविद शोमाली
$211,365 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
$199,186 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अली मुतहरी
$836,226 वॉल्यूम
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
$433,350 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
$3,346,847 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सादेग महसूली
$239,231 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
$384,741 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
$5,192,024 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
$281,762 वॉल्यूम
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
$254,575 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
$306,671 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
$341,397 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82% implied probability of remaining Iran's Supreme Leader at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts after Ali Khamenei's assassination during U.S.-Israeli strikes. Traders price continuity due to rapid institutional consolidation around the regime's security apparatus and IRGC networks, with Mojtaba positioned as a hardline successor despite limited public visibility and reports of injuries sustained in the conflict. Low odds on alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or a leadership vacuum reflect the absence of confirmed challenges to the constitutional succession process or major escalations that could trigger further turnover before year-end. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments in the conflict represent the primary variables that could still shift these assessments.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$38,634,406समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82% implied probability of remaining Iran's Supreme Leader at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts after Ali Khamenei's assassination during U.S.-Israeli strikes. Traders price continuity due to rapid institutional consolidation around the regime's security apparatus and IRGC networks, with Mojtaba positioned as a hardline successor despite limited public visibility and reports of injuries sustained in the conflict. Low odds on alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or a leadership vacuum reflect the absence of confirmed challenges to the constitutional succession process or major escalations that could trigger further turnover before year-end. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments in the conflict represent the primary variables that could still shift these assessments.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
वॉल्यूम
$38,634,406समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82% implied probability of remaining Iran's Supreme Leader at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts after Ali Khamenei's assassination during U.S.-Israeli strikes. Traders price continuity due to rapid institutional consolidation around the regime's security apparatus and IRGC networks, with Mojtaba positioned as a hardline successor despite limited public visibility and reports of injuries sustained in the conflict. Low odds on alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or a leadership vacuum reflect the absence of confirmed challenges to the constitutional succession process or major escalations that could trigger further turnover before year-end. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments in the conflict represent the primary variables that could still shift these assessments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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