**Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant 82.8% share reflects the Islamic Republic’s rapid post-assassination consolidation around dynastic continuity.** Following Ali Khamenei’s killing in late February 2026 strikes, the Assembly of Experts selected his son within days under IRGC pressure, elevating him despite his prior lack of formal office and the system’s historical aversion to hereditary succession. As of late August 2026, Mojtaba remains largely unseen after sustaining wounds in the same attack, prompting health rumors and questions about his operational role, yet officials maintain he retains final authority through written directives and inner-circle meetings. Low probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Masoud Pezeshkian, or others stem from the absence of competing institutional momentum or broad clerical-military backing in the current wartime environment. Trader pricing thus embeds expectations that the regime will sustain Mojtaba’s position through year-end absent major new shocks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
मोज़तबा खामनेई 82.8%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 4.9%
रज़ा पहलवी 3.4%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद 1.5%
$38,960,333 वॉल्यूम
$38,960,333 वॉल्यूम
मोज़तबा खामनेई
83%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
5%
रज़ा पहलवी
3%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
2%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
1%
हसन रूहानी
1%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
1%
हसन खोमेनी
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
1%
अब्बास अराक़ची
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
मरीयम रजवी
<1%
मसूद रजवी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
नविद शोमाली
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
मोज़तबा खामनेई 82.8%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 4.9%
रज़ा पहलवी 3.4%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद 1.5%
$38,960,333 वॉल्यूम
$38,960,333 वॉल्यूम
मोज़तबा खामनेई
83%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
5%
रज़ा पहलवी
3%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
2%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
1%
हसन रूहानी
1%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
1%
हसन खोमेनी
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
1%
अब्बास अराक़ची
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
मरीयम रजवी
<1%
मसूद रजवी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
नविद शोमाली
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant 82.8% share reflects the Islamic Republic’s rapid post-assassination consolidation around dynastic continuity.** Following Ali Khamenei’s killing in late February 2026 strikes, the Assembly of Experts selected his son within days under IRGC pressure, elevating him despite his prior lack of formal office and the system’s historical aversion to hereditary succession. As of late August 2026, Mojtaba remains largely unseen after sustaining wounds in the same attack, prompting health rumors and questions about his operational role, yet officials maintain he retains final authority through written directives and inner-circle meetings. Low probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Masoud Pezeshkian, or others stem from the absence of competing institutional momentum or broad clerical-military backing in the current wartime environment. Trader pricing thus embeds expectations that the regime will sustain Mojtaba’s position through year-end absent major new shocks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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