The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli military strikes triggered an expedited succession process by Iran's Assembly of Experts, which selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March with backing from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerical networks. This consolidation under a figure with established security ties and hardline credentials explains the dominant trader consensus around Mojtaba retaining the position through December 2026. Ongoing regional conflict, combined with institutional continuity and the absence of major internal fractures or leadership challenges in recent weeks, reinforces stability expectations. Alternative outcomes, such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, register low probabilities due to limited influence within the regime's core structures, though further escalations or procedural shifts by the Assembly of Experts could still alter positioning before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
मोज़तबा खामनेई 64.8%
रज़ा पहलवी 7%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ 5.0%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 2.9%
$8,458,710 वॉल्यूम
$8,458,710 वॉल्यूम
मोज़तबा खामनेई
65%
रज़ा पहलवी
7%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
5%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
3%
अब्बास अराक़ची
2%
हसन रूहानी
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
1%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
1%
हसन खोमेनी
1%
मरीयम रजवी
1%
मसूद रजवी
1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
1%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
<1%
नविद शोमाली
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
मोज़तबा खामनेई 64.8%
रज़ा पहलवी 7%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ 5.0%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 2.9%
$8,458,710 वॉल्यूम
$8,458,710 वॉल्यूम
मोज़तबा खामनेई
65%
रज़ा पहलवी
7%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
5%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
3%
अब्बास अराक़ची
2%
हसन रूहानी
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
1%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
1%
हसन खोमेनी
1%
मरीयम रजवी
1%
मसूद रजवी
1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
1%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
<1%
नविद शोमाली
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli military strikes triggered an expedited succession process by Iran's Assembly of Experts, which selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March with backing from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerical networks. This consolidation under a figure with established security ties and hardline credentials explains the dominant trader consensus around Mojtaba retaining the position through December 2026. Ongoing regional conflict, combined with institutional continuity and the absence of major internal fractures or leadership challenges in recent weeks, reinforces stability expectations. Alternative outcomes, such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, register low probabilities due to limited influence within the regime's core structures, though further escalations or procedural shifts by the Assembly of Experts could still alter positioning before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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