Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability that any country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions absent major crises like espionage allegations or severe sanctions disputes. Despite bilateral tensions, recent developments have de-escalated without formal expulsions: South Africa summoned U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III in March over controversial remarks on domestic policies, prompting opposition calls from the Economic Freedom Fighters to declare him persona non grata, but Pretoria opted for dialogue after his backtrack. Similarly, Hezbollah urged Lebanon last week to expel Ambassador Lisa Johnson amid regional frictions, yet no government action followed. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low base rates against potential flashpoints in Middle East diplomacy or trade negotiations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$15,172 वॉल्यूम
$15,172 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$15,172 वॉल्यूम
$15,172 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability that any country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions absent major crises like espionage allegations or severe sanctions disputes. Despite bilateral tensions, recent developments have de-escalated without formal expulsions: South Africa summoned U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III in March over controversial remarks on domestic policies, prompting opposition calls from the Economic Freedom Fighters to declare him persona non grata, but Pretoria opted for dialogue after his backtrack. Similarly, Hezbollah urged Lebanon last week to expel Ambassador Lisa Johnson amid regional frictions, yet no government action followed. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low base rates against potential flashpoints in Middle East diplomacy or trade negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$15,172समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability that any country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions absent major crises like espionage allegations or severe sanctions disputes. Despite bilateral tensions, recent developments have de-escalated without formal expulsions: South Africa summoned U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III in March over controversial remarks on domestic policies, prompting opposition calls from the Economic Freedom Fighters to declare him persona non grata, but Pretoria opted for dialogue after his backtrack. Similarly, Hezbollah urged Lebanon last week to expel Ambassador Lisa Johnson amid regional frictions, yet no government action followed. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low base rates against potential flashpoints in Middle East diplomacy or trade negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$15,172समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability that any country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions absent major crises like espionage allegations or severe sanctions disputes. Despite bilateral tensions, recent developments have de-escalated without formal expulsions: South Africa summoned U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III in March over controversial remarks on domestic policies, prompting opposition calls from the Economic Freedom Fighters to declare him persona non grata, but Pretoria opted for dialogue after his backtrack. Similarly, Hezbollah urged Lebanon last week to expel Ambassador Lisa Johnson amid regional frictions, yet no government action followed. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low base rates against potential flashpoints in Middle East diplomacy or trade negotiations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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