Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, centered on Kharg Island's role in handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for this market. March 2026 U.S. strikes targeted military assets on the island without hitting oil infrastructure, while subsequent threats to seize control or blockade exports aimed to pressure reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and curb Tehran's revenue. Renewed rhetoric in June, alongside reports of Iranian reinforcements and a June memorandum, has kept implied probabilities volatile, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of escalation risks versus negotiated de-escalation. Any shift in control would sharply influence global oil supply dynamics, benchmark crude prices, and energy-sector valuations, with upcoming diplomatic or military developments serving as key catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
नया
31 अग, 2026
August 31
7%
September 30
20%
$1,562 वॉल्यूम
August 31
$1,542 वॉल्यूम
7%
September 30
$20 वॉल्यूम
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, centered on Kharg Island's role in handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for this market. March 2026 U.S. strikes targeted military assets on the island without hitting oil infrastructure, while subsequent threats to seize control or blockade exports aimed to pressure reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and curb Tehran's revenue. Renewed rhetoric in June, alongside reports of Iranian reinforcements and a June memorandum, has kept implied probabilities volatile, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of escalation risks versus negotiated de-escalation. Any shift in control would sharply influence global oil supply dynamics, benchmark crude prices, and energy-sector valuations, with upcoming diplomatic or military developments serving as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,562समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, centered on Kharg Island's role in handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for this market. March 2026 U.S. strikes targeted military assets on the island without hitting oil infrastructure, while subsequent threats to seize control or blockade exports aimed to pressure reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and curb Tehran's revenue. Renewed rhetoric in June, alongside reports of Iranian reinforcements and a June memorandum, has kept implied probabilities volatile, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of escalation risks versus negotiated de-escalation. Any shift in control would sharply influence global oil supply dynamics, benchmark crude prices, and energy-sector valuations, with upcoming diplomatic or military developments serving as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$1,562समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, centered on Kharg Island's role in handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for this market. March 2026 U.S. strikes targeted military assets on the island without hitting oil infrastructure, while subsequent threats to seize control or blockade exports aimed to pressure reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and curb Tehran's revenue. Renewed rhetoric in June, alongside reports of Iranian reinforcements and a June memorandum, has kept implied probabilities volatile, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of escalation risks versus negotiated de-escalation. Any shift in control would sharply influence global oil supply dynamics, benchmark crude prices, and energy-sector valuations, with upcoming diplomatic or military developments serving as key catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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