Heightened security risks from Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of islands flanking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, are sustaining closely matched market-implied odds between the 170-189 and 230+ ship ranges. Recent weekly transit data from late September showed volumes recovering toward 264-290 vessels amid selective carrier returns to Suez routes by firms such as Maersk and Cosco, supported by Houthi assurances targeting only Saudi-linked traffic. However, fresh attacks on Saudi facilities and UN warnings of operational volatility have reinforced war-risk premiums and selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Yemen fighting or diplomatic signals that could shift the balance before the October 5 week.