Persistent tensions from the 2026 US-Iran conflict, including missile exchanges, proxy attacks on diplomatic facilities, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding that collapsed amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief, continue to block any path to normalized relations. As of mid-September, Iranian officials have rejected further talks without major US concessions, while Washington maintains sanctions and relies on Switzerland as its protecting power with no physical diplomatic presence in Tehran. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening reflects these structural barriers and the absence of scheduled diplomatic milestones before year-end. A late breakthrough yielding full normalization remains theoretically possible but would require rapid reversal of current positions on nuclear inspections, economic relief, and regional security issues.