Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026, following his father’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike, has kept him in seclusion amid active conflict. Traders price a low probability of departure by early 2027 dates because regime statements, presidential accounts, and security analyses consistently place him inside the country—likely in protected Tehran facilities—due to assassination risks and the need for centralized command over the IRGC and state decisions. No verified reports confirm exit or foreign treatment; instead, recent months have featured proof-of-life claims, written statements, and media emphasis on his domestic role. Ongoing hostilities, including September 2026 missile exchanges, reinforce barriers to travel while raising questions about his operational capacity and any potential succession shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$117,838 वॉल्यूम
31 अक्टू, 2026
31 अक्टूबर
3%
31 दिसंबर
4%
$117,838 वॉल्यूम
31 अक्टूबर
$119 वॉल्यूम
3%
31 दिसंबर
$806 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026, following his father’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike, has kept him in seclusion amid active conflict. Traders price a low probability of departure by early 2027 dates because regime statements, presidential accounts, and security analyses consistently place him inside the country—likely in protected Tehran facilities—due to assassination risks and the need for centralized command over the IRGC and state decisions. No verified reports confirm exit or foreign treatment; instead, recent months have featured proof-of-life claims, written statements, and media emphasis on his domestic role. Ongoing hostilities, including September 2026 missile exchanges, reinforce barriers to travel while raising questions about his operational capacity and any potential succession shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$117,838समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026, following his father’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike, has kept him in seclusion amid active conflict. Traders price a low probability of departure by early 2027 dates because regime statements, presidential accounts, and security analyses consistently place him inside the country—likely in protected Tehran facilities—due to assassination risks and the need for centralized command over the IRGC and state decisions. No verified reports confirm exit or foreign treatment; instead, recent months have featured proof-of-life claims, written statements, and media emphasis on his domestic role. Ongoing hostilities, including September 2026 missile exchanges, reinforce barriers to travel while raising questions about his operational capacity and any potential succession shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$117,838समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026, following his father’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike, has kept him in seclusion amid active conflict. Traders price a low probability of departure by early 2027 dates because regime statements, presidential accounts, and security analyses consistently place him inside the country—likely in protected Tehran facilities—due to assassination risks and the need for centralized command over the IRGC and state decisions. No verified reports confirm exit or foreign treatment; instead, recent months have featured proof-of-life claims, written statements, and media emphasis on his domestic role. Ongoing hostilities, including September 2026 missile exchanges, reinforce barriers to travel while raising questions about his operational capacity and any potential succession shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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