KMT maintains the strongest position ahead of Taiwan’s November 28 local elections due to its incumbents defending multiple key municipalities and counties, combined with a wider candidate slate across the 22 races. Recent polling shows mixed results in Taipei, where incumbent Chiang Wan-an faces a tightened contest against DPP challenger Puma Shen, while KMT leads remain steadier in Taoyuan, Taichung, and several other areas. Partial breakdown of KMT-TPP coordination in places such as Hsinchu County has not altered the overall outlook. DPP gains in favorability and urban momentum have lifted its implied probability but remain constrained by fewer strongholds. TPP prospects stay marginal given its limited resources and localized alliance frictions. Traders price these structural and recent campaign factors into the current consensus.