Russia maintains a commanding field position in the protracted conflict, with its maximalist territorial demands and rejection of NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine creating a near-insurmountable barrier to any comprehensive peace agreement. Recent trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi produced only a large-scale prisoner exchange while exposing persistent gaps on borders, demilitarization, and postwar architecture, leaving the implied probability of resolution extremely low. Ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk and strikes on infrastructure underscore the attrition game, where neither side shows willingness to concede key advantages. Shifts could still emerge from major battlefield reversals, leadership transitions, or external pressure forcing flexibility on core issues like occupied regions.