Traders assign a 97.2% probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 because U.S. assessments and analyst consensus view a full-scale operation as unlikely in the near term, citing PLA readiness gaps from ongoing anti-corruption efforts and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Recent unannounced naval deployments involving over 100 vessels in early November have been described as “silent intimidation” and area-denial rehearsals rather than invasion preparation, with activity levels dropping sharply by mid-month. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s latest policy address emphasized peaceful reunification without referencing force. Economic interdependence, allied deterrence, and Taiwan’s strengthened defenses further support the current trader consensus. Plausible shifts could still arise from miscalculation during gray-zone incidents, rapid diplomatic breakdowns, or unforeseen leadership developments before the end of 2026.