Recent US-China diplomatic engagement, including the late-September 2026 Trump-Xi summit that produced commitments to expand military crisis-communication channels and an AI safety mechanism, underpins trader consensus against an imminent clash. Both sides have prioritized strategic stability talks, reciprocal tariff reductions, and sustained senior-level military contacts to manage risks over Taiwan arms sales and Indo-Pacific operations. With only weeks remaining until 2027, these efforts reinforce expectations of continued deterrence through diplomacy rather than direct confrontation. Still, an unintended incident in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea involving naval or air forces could test new communication protocols and shift probabilities if it escalates beyond initial control.