Increased Chinese coast guard and naval vessel deployments around Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal, and other South China Sea features reached 101 tracked units in September 2026, up sharply from prior months, alongside reported rammings, water-cannon incidents, and a J-16 fighter's close approach to a Philippine patrol aircraft in early October. These grey-zone actions have sustained bilateral friction without crossing into sustained kinetic engagement between regular armed forces. Manila has responded with enhanced alliance coordination, including U.S. treaty commitments and joint exercises, while Beijing has emphasized law-enforcement patrols and rejected arbitration rulings. Traders appear to view the pattern of calibrated pressure and diplomatic signaling as likely to persist through 2026 rather than produce a declared military clash before 2027.