China’s annual CPI inflation for 2026 has traded toward the 0.6–1.0% range as the leading outcome amid persistently weak domestic demand, limited pass-through from upstream price gains to consumers, and ongoing deflationary pressures in food categories. Recent monthly readings have remained subdued, with the August 2026 print at 0.8% year-on-year following a 0.5% July figure, supported by modest non-food gains offset by pork, vegetable, and other food price weakness. Forecasts from institutions such as BBVA Research have been revised lower to around 0.8% for the full year, reflecting soft consumption sentiment, housing-market drag, and high youth unemployment that continue to constrain retail sales and investment. Policy measures aimed at boosting spending have yet to generate broad-based price momentum, keeping the distribution of probabilities clustered below 1.5% while assigning only modest weight to higher or negative outcomes.