Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by October CPI readings exceeding expectations with broad-based gains, have shifted trader sentiment toward a 25 basis point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Core PCE inflation tracking near 3.3% year-over-year and resilient economic activity, including a firm labor market with unemployment at 4.1%, underpin the 59.5% implied probability for the increase versus 39.5% for no change. Major banks including BofA and Deutsche Bank have revised forecasts higher, citing the Fed's need to address price pressures more aggressively after the September tightening, with December action likely setting the stage for further adjustments.
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