Jerome Powell faces negligible risk of imprisonment before 2027, as reflected in the 98.2% market-implied probability for "No." The Department of Justice dropped its January 2026 criminal probe into Powell's congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations in April, with a federal judge citing "essentially zero evidence" of wrongdoing and quashing related subpoenas. No charges have been filed, and the episode has been widely viewed as politically motivated pressure rather than a substantive legal matter. Powell's term as chair concluded amid ongoing monetary policy debates, with current Fed funds rate decisions and inflation data releases reinforcing his standard institutional role. Tail risks remain remote but could include unforeseen new allegations or extraordinary political developments, though historical precedent and the absence of ongoing investigations support the strong trader consensus.