Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, now trading near 5.25% after touching multi-year highs above 5.3%, stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, including September rate hikes and signals of further tightening amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. Heavy Treasury supply from elevated fiscal deficits, combined with corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, has lifted term premiums, while energy-driven inflation and strong nominal GDP growth reinforce higher-for-longer expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the October 2 employment report, mid-month CPI and PPI releases, and the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, which could clarify the pace of additional policy tightening and influence whether yields test levels above 5.5% before year-end.