Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and a more hawkish FOMC stance under Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted trader sentiment toward pricing in at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike before year-end, with the September 15-16 meeting viewed as a near toss-up. The target range remains 3.50-3.75% after the July decision, where three members dissented in favor of an immediate increase amid inflation still well above the 2% goal. June CPI printed 3.5% year-over-year before a softer monthly drop, while July data due today are forecast to show a modest rebound to around 3.4% headline and stable core readings near 2.5%. A weaker jobs report has tempered some expectations, yet solid labor conditions and supply-driven price pressures keep the market-implied path above the prior consensus for cuts. Key upcoming releases include the August CPI on September 11 and the September FOMC projections, which will clarify whether persistent inflation or softening demand alters the rate outlook.