Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year and supply shocks from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, prompting a split in the June FOMC dot plot where nine participants project at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end 2026 while the other nine favor steady or lower policy. This division, reinforced by three dissents at the July meeting and Chair Warsh's emphasis on price stability, underpins the market-implied 54.5% probability for a 2026 hike. Upcoming August CPI data, September FOMC deliberations, and subsequent labor market releases will likely determine whether trader sentiment tilts toward tightening or remains balanced.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
55% संभावना
$7,312,670 वॉल्यूम
$7,312,670 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
हाँ
55% संभावना
$7,312,670 वॉल्यूम
$7,312,670 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year and supply shocks from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, prompting a split in the June FOMC dot plot where nine participants project at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end 2026 while the other nine favor steady or lower policy. This division, reinforced by three dissents at the July meeting and Chair Warsh's emphasis on price stability, underpins the market-implied 54.5% probability for a 2026 hike. Upcoming August CPI data, September FOMC deliberations, and subsequent labor market releases will likely determine whether trader sentiment tilts toward tightening or remains balanced.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,312,670समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year and supply shocks from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, prompting a split in the June FOMC dot plot where nine participants project at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end 2026 while the other nine favor steady or lower policy. This division, reinforced by three dissents at the July meeting and Chair Warsh's emphasis on price stability, underpins the market-implied 54.5% probability for a 2026 hike. Upcoming August CPI data, September FOMC deliberations, and subsequent labor market releases will likely determine whether trader sentiment tilts toward tightening or remains balanced.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$7,312,670समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year and supply shocks from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, prompting a split in the June FOMC dot plot where nine participants project at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end 2026 while the other nine favor steady or lower policy. This division, reinforced by three dissents at the July meeting and Chair Warsh's emphasis on price stability, underpins the market-implied 54.5% probability for a 2026 hike. Upcoming August CPI data, September FOMC deliberations, and subsequent labor market releases will likely determine whether trader sentiment tilts toward tightening or remains balanced.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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