Persistent above-target inflation, with June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures near 2.6%, combined with a hawkish shift in the June FOMC dot plot, anchors the 56.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, nine of 18 participants projected the policy rate ending 2026 above the current 3.50%-3.75% range, while three FOMC members dissented in favor of a July hike amid resilient labor data showing unemployment near 4.1%. Fed funds futures now embed roughly even odds for a near-term move, though moderating energy prices and the upcoming July CPI release remain key swing factors that could alter trader consensus before year-end resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
56% संभावना
$7,162,940 वॉल्यूम
$7,162,940 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
हाँ
56% संभावना
$7,162,940 वॉल्यूम
$7,162,940 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, with June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures near 2.6%, combined with a hawkish shift in the June FOMC dot plot, anchors the 56.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, nine of 18 participants projected the policy rate ending 2026 above the current 3.50%-3.75% range, while three FOMC members dissented in favor of a July hike amid resilient labor data showing unemployment near 4.1%. Fed funds futures now embed roughly even odds for a near-term move, though moderating energy prices and the upcoming July CPI release remain key swing factors that could alter trader consensus before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,162,940समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, with June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures near 2.6%, combined with a hawkish shift in the June FOMC dot plot, anchors the 56.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, nine of 18 participants projected the policy rate ending 2026 above the current 3.50%-3.75% range, while three FOMC members dissented in favor of a July hike amid resilient labor data showing unemployment near 4.1%. Fed funds futures now embed roughly even odds for a near-term move, though moderating energy prices and the upcoming July CPI release remain key swing factors that could alter trader consensus before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$7,162,940समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent above-target inflation, with June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures near 2.6%, combined with a hawkish shift in the June FOMC dot plot, anchors the 56.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, nine of 18 participants projected the policy rate ending 2026 above the current 3.50%-3.75% range, while three FOMC members dissented in favor of a July hike amid resilient labor data showing unemployment near 4.1%. Fed funds futures now embed roughly even odds for a near-term move, though moderating energy prices and the upcoming July CPI release remain key swing factors that could alter trader consensus before year-end resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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