The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 13 by a narrow 54-45 vote, with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman providing the sole Democratic crossover amid partisan divisions, propelling trader consensus to 100% on his outcome and pricing Judy Shelton and Michelle Bowman near zero. This followed Senate approval of Warsh's Fed Board of Governors seat and advancement through the Banking Committee, solidifying President Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15. The commanding position reflects the final confirmation vote as ground truth for market resolution, with realistic challenges limited to unforeseen procedural reversals, health issues, or late withdrawals—none currently indicated.

May 8 2026

Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell

The DOJ officially ended its criminal investigation into Powell, removing a major obstacle to Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair. This development increased the likelihood of Warsh's confirmation by the Senate.

Apr 21 2026

Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on Kevin Warsh nomination

The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing on Warsh's nomination, where Republicans praised him and Democrats questioned his independence. The hearing was a key step in the confirmation process amid ongoing concerns about the DOJ investigation.

Mar 4 2026

Senator Thom Tillis vows to oppose any Fed nominee until Powell investigation resolved

Sen. Thom Tillis, a key Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, declared he would block confirmation of any Fed nominee, including Warsh, until the DOJ investigation into Powell was fully resolved, effectively stalling Warsh's confirmation.

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