Recent U.S. inflation data, with the July 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year—down modestly from 3.5% in June—alongside the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, have reinforced trader expectations for no policy changes through the September FOMC meeting. Elevated price pressures from prior energy shocks and a still-resilient labor market have tempered support for easing, while the new leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh has shifted toward simpler communications without forward guidance. This backdrop underpins the 66.5% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September meetings, with only a 1.1% chance priced for an intervening cut amid ongoing uncertainty over the inflation trajectory ahead of the next CPI release.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाPause–Pause–Pause 67%
Other 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.1%
$719,371 वॉल्यूम
$719,371 वॉल्यूम
16 सित, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
34%
Pause–Pause–Pause 67%
Other 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.1%
$719,371 वॉल्यूम
$719,371 वॉल्यूम
16 सित, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$286,634 वॉल्यूम
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$67,395 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$309,466 वॉल्यूम
34%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation data, with the July 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year—down modestly from 3.5% in June—alongside the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, have reinforced trader expectations for no policy changes through the September FOMC meeting. Elevated price pressures from prior energy shocks and a still-resilient labor market have tempered support for easing, while the new leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh has shifted toward simpler communications without forward guidance. This backdrop underpins the 66.5% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September meetings, with only a 1.1% chance priced for an intervening cut amid ongoing uncertainty over the inflation trajectory ahead of the next CPI release.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$719,371समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation data, with the July 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year—down modestly from 3.5% in June—alongside the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, have reinforced trader expectations for no policy changes through the September FOMC meeting. Elevated price pressures from prior energy shocks and a still-resilient labor market have tempered support for easing, while the new leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh has shifted toward simpler communications without forward guidance. This backdrop underpins the 66.5% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September meetings, with only a 1.1% chance priced for an intervening cut amid ongoing uncertainty over the inflation trajectory ahead of the next CPI release.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$719,371समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, with the July 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year—down modestly from 3.5% in June—alongside the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, have reinforced trader expectations for no policy changes through the September FOMC meeting. Elevated price pressures from prior energy shocks and a still-resilient labor market have tempered support for easing, while the new leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh has shifted toward simpler communications without forward guidance. This backdrop underpins the 66.5% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September meetings, with only a 1.1% chance priced for an intervening cut amid ongoing uncertainty over the inflation trajectory ahead of the next CPI release.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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