Recent cooling in June CPI to 3.5% year-over-year and a soft June jobs report have supported the 37% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the July–September–October FOMC sequence, yet a 9-3 July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid three dissents favoring a hike reflects persistent hawkish concerns over energy-driven inflation tied to geopolitical tensions. With July CPI due August 12 and Chair Kevin Warsh set to speak at Jackson Hole later this month, traders assign the highest weight (54.5%) to “Other” outcomes that could include September or October hikes if price pressures reaccelerate, while assigning minimal odds to any near-term cuts given the market-implied rate path versus official guidance.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाOther 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$664,222 वॉल्यूम
$664,222 वॉल्यूम
28 अक्टू, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
37%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
54%
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$664,222 वॉल्यूम
$664,222 वॉल्यूम
28 अक्टू, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$224,173 वॉल्यूम
37%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$51,057 वॉल्यूम
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,933 वॉल्यूम
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,467 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$290,105 वॉल्यूम
54%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent cooling in June CPI to 3.5% year-over-year and a soft June jobs report have supported the 37% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the July–September–October FOMC sequence, yet a 9-3 July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid three dissents favoring a hike reflects persistent hawkish concerns over energy-driven inflation tied to geopolitical tensions. With July CPI due August 12 and Chair Kevin Warsh set to speak at Jackson Hole later this month, traders assign the highest weight (54.5%) to “Other” outcomes that could include September or October hikes if price pressures reaccelerate, while assigning minimal odds to any near-term cuts given the market-implied rate path versus official guidance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$664,222समाप्ति तिथि
28 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent cooling in June CPI to 3.5% year-over-year and a soft June jobs report have supported the 37% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the July–September–October FOMC sequence, yet a 9-3 July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid three dissents favoring a hike reflects persistent hawkish concerns over energy-driven inflation tied to geopolitical tensions. With July CPI due August 12 and Chair Kevin Warsh set to speak at Jackson Hole later this month, traders assign the highest weight (54.5%) to “Other” outcomes that could include September or October hikes if price pressures reaccelerate, while assigning minimal odds to any near-term cuts given the market-implied rate path versus official guidance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$664,222समाप्ति तिथि
28 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling in June CPI to 3.5% year-over-year and a soft June jobs report have supported the 37% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the July–September–October FOMC sequence, yet a 9-3 July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid three dissents favoring a hike reflects persistent hawkish concerns over energy-driven inflation tied to geopolitical tensions. With July CPI due August 12 and Chair Kevin Warsh set to speak at Jackson Hole later this month, traders assign the highest weight (54.5%) to “Other” outcomes that could include September or October hikes if price pressures reaccelerate, while assigning minimal odds to any near-term cuts given the market-implied rate path versus official guidance.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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