Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 58%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 57%
2 (50 bps) 41%
4 (100 bps) 29%
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 bps)
28%
1 (25 bps)
58%
2 (50 bps)
41%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
57%
4 (100 bps)
29%
5+ (125+ bps)
24%
1 (25 bps) 58%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 57%
2 (50 bps) 41%
4 (100 bps) 29%
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$0 वॉल्यूम
28%
1 (25 bps)
$0 वॉल्यूम
58%
2 (50 bps)
$0 वॉल्यूम
41%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
$0 वॉल्यूम
57%
4 (100 bps)
$0 वॉल्यूम
29%
5+ (125+ bps)
$0 वॉल्यूम
24%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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