Elevated inflation readings, driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, combined with a divided July FOMC meeting where three policymakers dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, have shaped trader sentiment on the number of 2026 rate increases. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% following five consecutive holds and June CPI moderating to 3.5% year-over-year, market-implied odds favor zero or one 25-basis-point hike as the base case. Recent data showing core inflation easing alongside solid labor market conditions and growth have tempered expectations for aggressive tightening, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 47%
1 (25 bps) 33%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 3.0%
$134,276 वॉल्यूम
$134,276 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 bps)
47%
1 (25 bps)
33%
2 (50 bps)
13%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 47%
1 (25 bps) 33%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 3.0%
$134,276 वॉल्यूम
$134,276 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,227 वॉल्यूम
47%
1 (25 bps)
$19,212 वॉल्यूम
33%
2 (50 bps)
$31,096 वॉल्यूम
13%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
$13,121 वॉल्यूम
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,390 वॉल्यूम
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,230 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation readings, driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, combined with a divided July FOMC meeting where three policymakers dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, have shaped trader sentiment on the number of 2026 rate increases. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% following five consecutive holds and June CPI moderating to 3.5% year-over-year, market-implied odds favor zero or one 25-basis-point hike as the base case. Recent data showing core inflation easing alongside solid labor market conditions and growth have tempered expectations for aggressive tightening, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$134,276समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation readings, driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, combined with a divided July FOMC meeting where three policymakers dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, have shaped trader sentiment on the number of 2026 rate increases. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% following five consecutive holds and June CPI moderating to 3.5% year-over-year, market-implied odds favor zero or one 25-basis-point hike as the base case. Recent data showing core inflation easing alongside solid labor market conditions and growth have tempered expectations for aggressive tightening, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
वॉल्यूम
$134,276समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, combined with a divided July FOMC meeting where three policymakers dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, have shaped trader sentiment on the number of 2026 rate increases. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% following five consecutive holds and June CPI moderating to 3.5% year-over-year, market-implied odds favor zero or one 25-basis-point hike as the base case. Recent data showing core inflation easing alongside solid labor market conditions and growth have tempered expectations for aggressive tightening, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability and the September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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