Market-implied odds for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 place 3.75% in a leading position at 60.5%, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid sticky inflation. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while resilient April payrolls and 4.3% unemployment have reinforced a cautious policy stance. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs now project no cuts or delayed easing into late 2026 or beyond, aligning with CME futures pricing that assigns high probability to unchanged rates. Traders interpret these data points as tilting the balance of risks toward inflation persistence rather than growth weakness, supporting the current market consensus for a terminal rate near present levels.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया3.75% 60.5%
4.0% 16.8%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,396 वॉल्यूम
$6,523,396 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
61%
4.0%
17%
4.25%
4%
≥ 4.5%
1%
3.75% 60.5%
4.0% 16.8%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,396 वॉल्यूम
$6,523,396 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
≤1.0%
$216,014 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.25
$134,363 वॉल्यूम
1%
1.5%
$134,117 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 वॉल्यूम
1%
2.0%
$246,025 वॉल्यूम
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 वॉल्यूम
<1%
2.5%
$158,852 वॉल्यूम
1%
2.75%
$46,024 वॉल्यूम
1%
3.0%
$454,736 वॉल्यूम
4%
3.25%
$51,537 वॉल्यूम
8%
3.5%
$190,202 वॉल्यूम
7%
3.75%
$518,453 वॉल्यूम
61%
4.0%
$1,358,628 वॉल्यूम
17%
4.25%
$413,541 वॉल्यूम
4%
≥ 4.5%
$2,396,040 वॉल्यूम
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Market-implied odds for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 place 3.75% in a leading position at 60.5%, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid sticky inflation. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while resilient April payrolls and 4.3% unemployment have reinforced a cautious policy stance. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs now project no cuts or delayed easing into late 2026 or beyond, aligning with CME futures pricing that assigns high probability to unchanged rates. Traders interpret these data points as tilting the balance of risks toward inflation persistence rather than growth weakness, supporting the current market consensus for a terminal rate near present levels.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$6,523,396समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Market-implied odds for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 place 3.75% in a leading position at 60.5%, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid sticky inflation. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while resilient April payrolls and 4.3% unemployment have reinforced a cautious policy stance. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs now project no cuts or delayed easing into late 2026 or beyond, aligning with CME futures pricing that assigns high probability to unchanged rates. Traders interpret these data points as tilting the balance of risks toward inflation persistence rather than growth weakness, supporting the current market consensus for a terminal rate near present levels.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
वॉल्यूम
$6,523,396समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 place 3.75% in a leading position at 60.5%, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid sticky inflation. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while resilient April payrolls and 4.3% unemployment have reinforced a cautious policy stance. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs now project no cuts or delayed easing into late 2026 or beyond, aligning with CME futures pricing that assigns high probability to unchanged rates. Traders interpret these data points as tilting the balance of risks toward inflation persistence rather than growth weakness, supporting the current market consensus for a terminal rate near present levels.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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