Traders assign the highest probabilities to a federal funds rate of 3.75% or 4.0% at the end of 2026 because the FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026 amid resilient growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2–4.3%, and inflation that remains elevated above the 2% goal, particularly after energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments. June and July FOMC projections revised upward the median path for year-end 2026 rates, reflecting slower expected disinflation and some participants favoring hikes if price pressures persist. Recent CPI readings showed modest core moderation but limited pass-through relief, while market pricing and analyst forecasts increasingly incorporate the possibility of one or more adjustments later in the year rather than further easing. These dynamics position the 3.75–4.0% band as the central trader consensus for the terminal level.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया3.75% 40.1%
4.0% 26.4%
4.25% 13.9%
3.5% 8.4%
$6,755,884 वॉल्यूम
$6,755,884 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
40%
4.0%
26%
4.25%
14%
≥ 4.5%
6%
3.75% 40.1%
4.0% 26.4%
4.25% 13.9%
3.5% 8.4%
$6,755,884 वॉल्यूम
$6,755,884 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
≤1.0%
$243,126 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.25
$142,677 वॉल्यूम
1%
1.5%
$145,909 वॉल्यूम
1%
1.75%
$147,970 वॉल्यूम
<1%
2.0%
$263,239 वॉल्यूम
<1%
2.25%
$87,683 वॉल्यूम
<1%
2.5%
$172,865 वॉल्यूम
1%
2.75%
$60,980 वॉल्यूम
1%
3.0%
$488,822 वॉल्यूम
1%
3.25%
$64,233 वॉल्यूम
1%
3.5%
$202,092 वॉल्यूम
8%
3.75%
$531,835 वॉल्यूम
40%
4.0%
$1,369,235 वॉल्यूम
26%
4.25%
$427,272 वॉल्यूम
14%
≥ 4.5%
$2,407,947 वॉल्यूम
6%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders assign the highest probabilities to a federal funds rate of 3.75% or 4.0% at the end of 2026 because the FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026 amid resilient growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2–4.3%, and inflation that remains elevated above the 2% goal, particularly after energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments. June and July FOMC projections revised upward the median path for year-end 2026 rates, reflecting slower expected disinflation and some participants favoring hikes if price pressures persist. Recent CPI readings showed modest core moderation but limited pass-through relief, while market pricing and analyst forecasts increasingly incorporate the possibility of one or more adjustments later in the year rather than further easing. These dynamics position the 3.75–4.0% band as the central trader consensus for the terminal level.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$6,755,884समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders assign the highest probabilities to a federal funds rate of 3.75% or 4.0% at the end of 2026 because the FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026 amid resilient growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2–4.3%, and inflation that remains elevated above the 2% goal, particularly after energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments. June and July FOMC projections revised upward the median path for year-end 2026 rates, reflecting slower expected disinflation and some participants favoring hikes if price pressures persist. Recent CPI readings showed modest core moderation but limited pass-through relief, while market pricing and analyst forecasts increasingly incorporate the possibility of one or more adjustments later in the year rather than further easing. These dynamics position the 3.75–4.0% band as the central trader consensus for the terminal level.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
वॉल्यूम
$6,755,884समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign the highest probabilities to a federal funds rate of 3.75% or 4.0% at the end of 2026 because the FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026 amid resilient growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2–4.3%, and inflation that remains elevated above the 2% goal, particularly after energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments. June and July FOMC projections revised upward the median path for year-end 2026 rates, reflecting slower expected disinflation and some participants favoring hikes if price pressures persist. Recent CPI readings showed modest core moderation but limited pass-through relief, while market pricing and analyst forecasts increasingly incorporate the possibility of one or more adjustments later in the year rather than further easing. These dynamics position the 3.75–4.0% band as the central trader consensus for the terminal level.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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