Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 72% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI showing 3.8% headline inflation—up from 3.3%—and core measures at 2.8%, fueled by energy costs from Middle East tensions. Solid April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and underscoring labor market resilience, while the FOMC held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29 in an unusually divided 8-4 vote. Brokerages including BofA and Goldman have delayed easing forecasts to 2027. Key catalysts ahead: June FOMC meeting and May CPI release.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0 (0 बीपीएस) 72.0%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 16%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 7%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 2.6%
$26,492,894 वॉल्यूम
$26,492,894 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
72%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
16%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
7%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
3%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
2%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
1%
0 (0 बीपीएस) 72.0%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 16%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 7%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 2.6%
$26,492,894 वॉल्यूम
$26,492,894 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
$4,113,301 वॉल्यूम
72%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
$1,228,455 वॉल्यूम
16%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
$1,176,548 वॉल्यूम
7%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
$1,082,789 वॉल्यूम
3%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
$1,185,028 वॉल्यूम
2%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
$1,397,016 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
$2,448,853 वॉल्यूम
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
$1,314,022 वॉल्यूम
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$1,702,470 वॉल्यूम
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
$2,426,264 वॉल्यूम
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$3,072,576 वॉल्यूम
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
$3,227,393 वॉल्यूम
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
$2,124,036 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 72% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI showing 3.8% headline inflation—up from 3.3%—and core measures at 2.8%, fueled by energy costs from Middle East tensions. Solid April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and underscoring labor market resilience, while the FOMC held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29 in an unusually divided 8-4 vote. Brokerages including BofA and Goldman have delayed easing forecasts to 2027. Key catalysts ahead: June FOMC meeting and May CPI release.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$26,492,894समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 72% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI showing 3.8% headline inflation—up from 3.3%—and core measures at 2.8%, fueled by energy costs from Middle East tensions. Solid April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and underscoring labor market resilience, while the FOMC held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29 in an unusually divided 8-4 vote. Brokerages including BofA and Goldman have delayed easing forecasts to 2027. Key catalysts ahead: June FOMC meeting and May CPI release.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
वॉल्यूम
$26,492,894समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 72% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI showing 3.8% headline inflation—up from 3.3%—and core measures at 2.8%, fueled by energy costs from Middle East tensions. Solid April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and underscoring labor market resilience, while the FOMC held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29 in an unusually divided 8-4 vote. Brokerages including BofA and Goldman have delayed easing forecasts to 2027. Key catalysts ahead: June FOMC meeting and May CPI release.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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