**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and the central bank’s September 2026 projections for further policy firming underpin the 96% market-implied probability of zero rate cuts in 2026.** After the September quarter-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% range, most FOMC participants penciled in at least one additional increase by year-end, with the median endpoint near 4.125%. Recent CPI readings, including the September print near 3.2% with core measures easing only gradually, have reinforced upside risks to inflation amid solid growth and a still-resilient labor market. This has kept the market-implied rate path focused on tightening rather than easing. A sharp deterioration in employment data or a sustained disinflationary surprise sufficient to shift the Fed’s dot plot toward cuts could alter this consensus before year-end.