Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$225,212 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,212 वॉल्यूम
3.9%
$44,197 वॉल्यूम
12%
3.8%
$41,312 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.7%
$27,383 वॉल्यूम
2%
3.6%
$5,587 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.5%
$32,973 वॉल्यूम
4%
3.0%
$917 वॉल्यूम
3%
2.0%
$514 वॉल्यूम
2%
1.0%
$40,570 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$225,212समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
वॉल्यूम
$225,212समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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