Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE at 3.3% as of June 2026, combined with a firm labor market and geopolitical energy-price pressures, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.63% as of August 13. Trader consensus on the lowest yield before 2027 reflects limited scope for aggressive easing unless incoming CPI or employment data signal a sharper slowdown. Fiscal concerns and elevated term premiums continue to support higher long-term rates, while upcoming FOMC meetings and August–September inflation releases represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds for deeper yield compression.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$225,059 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
3%
3.6%
6%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,059 वॉल्यूम
3.9%
$44,197 वॉल्यूम
12%
3.8%
$41,312 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.7%
$27,333 वॉल्यूम
3%
3.6%
$5,537 वॉल्यूम
6%
3.5%
$32,936 वॉल्यूम
4%
3.0%
$901 वॉल्यूम
3%
2.0%
$514 वॉल्यूम
2%
1.0%
$40,570 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE at 3.3% as of June 2026, combined with a firm labor market and geopolitical energy-price pressures, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.63% as of August 13. Trader consensus on the lowest yield before 2027 reflects limited scope for aggressive easing unless incoming CPI or employment data signal a sharper slowdown. Fiscal concerns and elevated term premiums continue to support higher long-term rates, while upcoming FOMC meetings and August–September inflation releases represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds for deeper yield compression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$225,059समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE at 3.3% as of June 2026, combined with a firm labor market and geopolitical energy-price pressures, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.63% as of August 13. Trader consensus on the lowest yield before 2027 reflects limited scope for aggressive easing unless incoming CPI or employment data signal a sharper slowdown. Fiscal concerns and elevated term premiums continue to support higher long-term rates, while upcoming FOMC meetings and August–September inflation releases represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds for deeper yield compression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
वॉल्यूम
$225,059समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE at 3.3% as of June 2026, combined with a firm labor market and geopolitical energy-price pressures, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.63% as of August 13. Trader consensus on the lowest yield before 2027 reflects limited scope for aggressive easing unless incoming CPI or employment data signal a sharper slowdown. Fiscal concerns and elevated term premiums continue to support higher long-term rates, while upcoming FOMC meetings and August–September inflation releases represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds for deeper yield compression.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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