Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient growth and a labor market that has stabilized rather than cooled sharply, underpin the closely contested probabilities for the September, late-October, and December FOMC meetings. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance has shifted focus to incoming data, producing a hawkish June dot plot in which nine participants now project at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end. This has narrowed the gap between hike-first sequences (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23%) and hold-first paths, leaving outcomes sensitive to the September 15–16 decision and subsequent CPI/PCE prints. Traders are therefore pricing in a data-dependent policy reaction function rather than a predetermined easing or tightening cycle.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयावृद्धि–विराम–वृद्धि 23%
बढ़ोतरी–ठहराव–ठहराव 20%
ठहराव–ठहराव–बढ़ोतरी 17%
बढ़ोतरी–बढ़ोतरी–विराम 14%
नया
नया
9 दिस, 2026
वृद्धि–विराम–वृद्धि
23%
बढ़ोतरी–ठहराव–ठहराव
20%
तीन बार वृद्धि (हाइक–हाइक–हाइक)
7%
बढ़ोतरी–बढ़ोतरी–विराम
14%
ठहराव–ठहराव–बढ़ोतरी
17%
विराम–विराम–विराम
11%
रुकना–बढ़ाना–बढ़ाना
6%
रोक–वृद्धि–रोक
10%
अन्य
7%
वृद्धि–विराम–वृद्धि 23%
बढ़ोतरी–ठहराव–ठहराव 20%
ठहराव–ठहराव–बढ़ोतरी 17%
बढ़ोतरी–बढ़ोतरी–विराम 14%
नया
नया
9 दिस, 2026
वृद्धि–विराम–वृद्धि
$40 वॉल्यूम
23%
बढ़ोतरी–ठहराव–ठहराव
$41 वॉल्यूम
20%
तीन बार वृद्धि (हाइक–हाइक–हाइक)
$25 वॉल्यूम
7%
बढ़ोतरी–बढ़ोतरी–विराम
$25 वॉल्यूम
14%
ठहराव–ठहराव–बढ़ोतरी
$25 वॉल्यूम
17%
विराम–विराम–विराम
$25 वॉल्यूम
11%
रुकना–बढ़ाना–बढ़ाना
$25 वॉल्यूम
6%
रोक–वृद्धि–रोक
$42 वॉल्यूम
10%
अन्य
$25 वॉल्यूम
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient growth and a labor market that has stabilized rather than cooled sharply, underpin the closely contested probabilities for the September, late-October, and December FOMC meetings. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance has shifted focus to incoming data, producing a hawkish June dot plot in which nine participants now project at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end. This has narrowed the gap between hike-first sequences (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23%) and hold-first paths, leaving outcomes sensitive to the September 15–16 decision and subsequent CPI/PCE prints. Traders are therefore pricing in a data-dependent policy reaction function rather than a predetermined easing or tightening cycle.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$273समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient growth and a labor market that has stabilized rather than cooled sharply, underpin the closely contested probabilities for the September, late-October, and December FOMC meetings. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance has shifted focus to incoming data, producing a hawkish June dot plot in which nine participants now project at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end. This has narrowed the gap between hike-first sequences (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23%) and hold-first paths, leaving outcomes sensitive to the September 15–16 decision and subsequent CPI/PCE prints. Traders are therefore pricing in a data-dependent policy reaction function rather than a predetermined easing or tightening cycle.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$273समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient growth and a labor market that has stabilized rather than cooled sharply, underpin the closely contested probabilities for the September, late-October, and December FOMC meetings. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance has shifted focus to incoming data, producing a hawkish June dot plot in which nine participants now project at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end. This has narrowed the gap between hike-first sequences (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23%) and hold-first paths, leaving outcomes sensitive to the September 15–16 decision and subsequent CPI/PCE prints. Traders are therefore pricing in a data-dependent policy reaction function rather than a predetermined easing or tightening cycle.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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