Japan’s strained ties with China, rooted in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 remarks framing a Taiwan contingency as a potential survival threat warranting collective self-defense, continue to shape expectations for any Xi Jinping encounter at the November 18-19 APEC summit in Shenzhen. A full bilateral meeting remains unlikely, with diplomatic sources indicating Japan will be the only major participant without one, though Beijing has signaled willingness for a protocol-level greeting. Japanese officials have sought assurances of equal treatment to avoid a public snub, raising the prospect of a brief handshake during leaders’ events like the dinner. This context positions a short 2–6 second exchange as the leading outcome while leaving room for no handshake or a photographed-only interaction amid unresolved tensions.