Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, setting up a general election matchup against Republican Adriel Lam and minor-party candidates in the solidly Democratic HI-01 district. The seat's D+13 partisan lean and Case's 2024 margin above 43 points anchor trader expectations for a Democratic hold, yet the spread across margin buckets from 45-55% down to narrower ranges reflects uncertainty over turnout in Honolulu-area precincts, the impact of third-party votes, and any late national or local economic signals. With no major campaign developments since the primary, the tight distribution across outcomes captures the wisdom of crowds assessing a low-competition race where modest shifts in voter participation or messaging could narrow or widen the final margin before November 3.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाDemocrat 50-55% 28%
डेमोक्रेट 45-50% 13%
Democrat 55%+ 11%
डेमोक्रेट 30-35% 10.5%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democrat 55%+
11%
Democrat 50-55%
28%
डेमोक्रेट 45-50%
13%
डेमोक्रेट 40-45%
13%
डेमोक्रेट 35-40%
8%
डेमोक्रेट 30-35%
11%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30%
9%
डेमोक्रेट 15-25%
5%
डेमोक्रेट 0-15%
10%
रिपब्लिकन जीत
8%
Democrat 50-55% 28%
डेमोक्रेट 45-50% 13%
Democrat 55%+ 11%
डेमोक्रेट 30-35% 10.5%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democrat 55%+
$152 वॉल्यूम
11%
Democrat 50-55%
$238 वॉल्यूम
28%
डेमोक्रेट 45-50%
$177 वॉल्यूम
13%
डेमोक्रेट 40-45%
$117 वॉल्यूम
13%
डेमोक्रेट 35-40%
$117 वॉल्यूम
8%
डेमोक्रेट 30-35%
$122 वॉल्यूम
11%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30%
$137 वॉल्यूम
9%
डेमोक्रेट 15-25%
$142 वॉल्यूम
5%
डेमोक्रेट 0-15%
$117 वॉल्यूम
10%
रिपब्लिकन जीत
$117 वॉल्यूम
8%
The 2026 HI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, setting up a general election matchup against Republican Adriel Lam and minor-party candidates in the solidly Democratic HI-01 district. The seat's D+13 partisan lean and Case's 2024 margin above 43 points anchor trader expectations for a Democratic hold, yet the spread across margin buckets from 45-55% down to narrower ranges reflects uncertainty over turnout in Honolulu-area precincts, the impact of third-party votes, and any late national or local economic signals. With no major campaign developments since the primary, the tight distribution across outcomes captures the wisdom of crowds assessing a low-competition race where modest shifts in voter participation or messaging could narrow or widen the final margin before November 3.
The 2026 HI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,437समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 HI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, setting up a general election matchup against Republican Adriel Lam and minor-party candidates in the solidly Democratic HI-01 district. The seat's D+13 partisan lean and Case's 2024 margin above 43 points anchor trader expectations for a Democratic hold, yet the spread across margin buckets from 45-55% down to narrower ranges reflects uncertainty over turnout in Honolulu-area precincts, the impact of third-party votes, and any late national or local economic signals. With no major campaign developments since the primary, the tight distribution across outcomes captures the wisdom of crowds assessing a low-competition race where modest shifts in voter participation or messaging could narrow or widen the final margin before November 3.
The 2026 HI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$1,437समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, setting up a general election matchup against Republican Adriel Lam and minor-party candidates in the solidly Democratic HI-01 district. The seat's D+13 partisan lean and Case's 2024 margin above 43 points anchor trader expectations for a Democratic hold, yet the spread across margin buckets from 45-55% down to narrower ranges reflects uncertainty over turnout in Honolulu-area precincts, the impact of third-party votes, and any late national or local economic signals. With no major campaign developments since the primary, the tight distribution across outcomes captures the wisdom of crowds assessing a low-competition race where modest shifts in voter participation or messaging could narrow or widen the final margin before November 3.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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