Current forecasts from meteorological agencies project a daily maximum of 31°C in Chengdu today, consistent with the market’s 94.5% implied probability for that outcome and the low odds assigned to 32°C or higher. This consensus reflects typical early-June subtropical monsoon conditions over the Sichuan Basin, where daytime highs commonly reach the low 30s under moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. Model runs show tight agreement around this value, with only modest uncertainty from potential afternoon convection or slight timing shifts in the thermal ridge. A notable strengthening of high-pressure subsidence or delayed onset of monsoon rains could push readings to 32–33°C, while increased moisture or earlier cloud buildup would more likely cap the high near or below 30°C.