Persistent late-July heat across North Texas, driven by a strong subtropical high promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong solar insolation, positions 102–103°F as the leading outcome for Dallas on July 31 with 50% implied probability. Official National Weather Service guidance and multiple forecast models converge on highs near 102–104°F amid ongoing heat advisories, consistent with climatological peaks for the period when dew points and afternoon mixing support extreme surface temperatures. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest potential for 100–101°F if boundary-layer moisture increases or for 104–105°F under drier, windier conditions; traders weigh these narrow uncertainties against historical July extremes exceeding 105°F. Updated NWS briefings and evening model cycles on July 30 will refine the final range.