Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm the daily maximum temperature reached exactly 31°C on October 12, driving the market-implied odds to 100% for that outcome. Recent atmospheric conditions, including clear skies and light winds under a stable subtropical high-pressure system, supported this peak without exceeding it, consistent with seasonal climatology for mid-October where average highs hover near 28–30°C. Model guidance and surface observations aligned closely, leaving minimal room for variance. Realistic scenarios that could alter the consensus include post-event data revisions by the observatory or discrepancies in station-specific readings, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary reports are finalized.