Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model runs position Houston near its late-July climatological normal of 95°F for the daily high, supporting the market's emphasis on 94-95°F as the modal outcome. Persistent subtropical ridging has maintained mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow, limiting cloud cover and allowing efficient daytime heating, while dew points in the mid-70s add only modest suppression through evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most solutions clustering between 93° and 96°F and only modest chances for scattered afternoon convection that could briefly reduce peak readings. Updated short-range forecasts released in the past 24 hours have reinforced this range without introducing stronger cooling or heat-amplifying signals, keeping the 92-97°F bin probabilities dominant while capping the tail risk of extremes above 98°F.