Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a cool, unsettled pattern over Istanbul on October 17 driven by persistent northerly flow and widespread showers, keeping daytime maxima tightly clustered near 13–14 °C. Cloud cover and moderate winds off the Black Sea are expected to limit insolation and prevent brief warming episodes that could push readings to 15 °C, while the absence of strong cold-air advection makes sub-12 °C outcomes unlikely. The near-even market split between 13 °C and 14 °C reflects residual model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing; final high-resolution updates and local observations on the 16th–17th will narrow the range ahead of resolution.