Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate Madrid’s June 13 maximum will most likely reach 34–35 °C, reflecting strong daytime solar heating under clear skies and light winds typical of the region’s early-summer regime. Subtle differences among model runs arise from variations in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high, which can add or subtract 1 °C. Historical June maxima average near 30 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above climatology yet well below extremes that would push probabilities toward 36 °C or higher. Updated model cycles and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of the tightly bunched leading outcomes.