The heavily Democratic character of Illinois’ 1st congressional district, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voting Index and consistent strong support for Democratic candidates, anchors trader consensus around a sizable victory margin for incumbent Jonathan Jackson over Republican nominee Christian Maxwell. Primary results from March 2026 confirmed both nominees without major surprises, and the absence of competitive polling, fundraising surges, or national campaign attention since then has left the race stable. Traders assign low probability to a Republican win while spreading probability across Democratic margin buckets, illustrating uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than its outcome. Late-cycle developments such as turnout shifts in Cook County or unexpected national headwinds could alter the exact margin but are viewed as low-probability catalysts at this stage.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIL -01 हाउस इलेक्शन मार्जिन ऑफ़ विक्ट्री
IL -01 हाउस इलेक्शन मार्जिन ऑफ़ विक्ट्री
डेमोक्रेट 55%+ 37%
डेमोक्रेट 50-55% 37%
डेमोक्रेट 45-50% 37%
डेमोक्रेट 40-45% 37%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेट 55%+
37%
डेमोक्रेट 50-55%
37%
डेमोक्रेट 45-50%
37%
डेमोक्रेट 40-45%
37%
डेमोक्रेट 35-40%
37%
डेमोक्रेट 30-35%
37%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30%
37%
डेमोक्रेट 15-25%
37%
डेमोक्रेट 0-15%
37%
Republican Wins
16%
डेमोक्रेट 55%+ 37%
डेमोक्रेट 50-55% 37%
डेमोक्रेट 45-50% 37%
डेमोक्रेट 40-45% 37%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेट 55%+
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
डेमोक्रेट 50-55%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
डेमोक्रेट 45-50%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
डेमोक्रेट 40-45%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
डेमोक्रेट 35-40%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
डेमोक्रेट 30-35%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
डेमोक्रेट 15-25%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
डेमोक्रेट 0-15%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
Republican Wins
$0 वॉल्यूम
16%
The 2026 IL-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The heavily Democratic character of Illinois’ 1st congressional district, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voting Index and consistent strong support for Democratic candidates, anchors trader consensus around a sizable victory margin for incumbent Jonathan Jackson over Republican nominee Christian Maxwell. Primary results from March 2026 confirmed both nominees without major surprises, and the absence of competitive polling, fundraising surges, or national campaign attention since then has left the race stable. Traders assign low probability to a Republican win while spreading probability across Democratic margin buckets, illustrating uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than its outcome. Late-cycle developments such as turnout shifts in Cook County or unexpected national headwinds could alter the exact margin but are viewed as low-probability catalysts at this stage.
The 2026 IL-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 10, 2026, 10:52 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 10, 2026, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 IL-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The heavily Democratic character of Illinois’ 1st congressional district, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voting Index and consistent strong support for Democratic candidates, anchors trader consensus around a sizable victory margin for incumbent Jonathan Jackson over Republican nominee Christian Maxwell. Primary results from March 2026 confirmed both nominees without major surprises, and the absence of competitive polling, fundraising surges, or national campaign attention since then has left the race stable. Traders assign low probability to a Republican win while spreading probability across Democratic margin buckets, illustrating uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than its outcome. Late-cycle developments such as turnout shifts in Cook County or unexpected national headwinds could alter the exact margin but are viewed as low-probability catalysts at this stage.
The 2026 IL-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 10, 2026, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The heavily Democratic character of Illinois’ 1st congressional district, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voting Index and consistent strong support for Democratic candidates, anchors trader consensus around a sizable victory margin for incumbent Jonathan Jackson over Republican nominee Christian Maxwell. Primary results from March 2026 confirmed both nominees without major surprises, and the absence of competitive polling, fundraising surges, or national campaign attention since then has left the race stable. Traders assign low probability to a Republican win while spreading probability across Democratic margin buckets, illustrating uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than its outcome. Late-cycle developments such as turnout shifts in Cook County or unexpected national headwinds could alter the exact margin but are viewed as low-probability catalysts at this stage.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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