Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election projects Likud at 19–23 seats, well below its 32-seat total from the prior vote, supporting the elevated trader consensus for seat losses. Surveys from outlets including Maariv and Channel 13 show the Netanyahu-aligned bloc hovering near 50–52 seats, short of a majority, while opposition parties coordinate on turnout and coalition rules. Security developments and voter fragmentation have sustained this positioning, though variables such as final turnout among overseas voters, surplus agreements, or late court rulings on candidate lists could still shift outcomes before polls close.