Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s official X accounts post official statements on a low baseline frequency outside acute crises, producing the market’s 80.5% consensus on fewer than five posts for June 19–26. The new supreme leader’s March 2026 debut featured a brief tweetstorm tied to U.S.-Israel military developments, but subsequent weeks returned to sporadic output of translated remarks rather than daily commentary. Health questions and limited public visibility since the February strikes have further constrained routine activity, while no major escalation, diplomatic summit, or domestic event has emerged in the past week to trigger higher volume. Traders therefore price the sub-five outcome as the expected norm, with elevated bins reflecting only the low-probability chance of sudden regional flare-ups or policy announcements within the narrow resolution window.