Forecast models and observational data from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 19°C for Chengdu on October 15, 2026, under persistent overcast skies, light northerly winds, and possible drizzle that limit radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the market's dominant 92.5% implied probability for 19°C, reflecting strong consensus across ensemble runs and historical October baselines in the Sichuan Basin where autumn lows typically range 17–21°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current guidance, with only modest model spread. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies or a sharper cold-air intrusion than projected, though such shifts remain unlikely before resolution based on the latest runs.